Calculate expected Treasure Hunt drops and the chance of finding at least one reward after a chosen number of chests.
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Normal-match model: each opening is independent, with a fixed chance of 1 in 137,500. Expected drops = n ÷ d. Chance of at least one = 1 − (1 − 1/d)ⁿ. This is not a guarantee or a pity counter.
Treasure Hour boosts, squad sharing and ownership exclusions are not modeled. The Gizmo rate describes any Gizmo, not one specific item. Epic rate source ↗ · Checked 2026-11-12.
At the normal Pirate Shop Access rate, 1,000 openings produce an expected 0.00727 drops and roughly a 0.7246% chance of at least one. A fractional expectation describes an average across many hypothetical runs; it is not a fraction of a token that your account has earned. At zero openings both results are zero.
Choose a chest count you can realistically open. Compare another reward using the same count, then decide whether the route is worth your time. If a special event changes the rate, use this calculator only as the normal-match baseline. Your next chest does not become more likely to win simply because previous ones missed.
Expected drops is n divided by the rate denominator. It averages the number of drops over many hypothetical runs. The chance of at least one answers a different question: how often would a run contain any success? An expectation of one can coexist with a substantial chance of getting nothing. Neither output describes a reward already earned by your account.
This tool models one fixed normal-match rate. Do not mix normal and boosted openings into one count and treat the result as exact. Different rates require separate probability terms, and squad-sharing or ownership rules add further conditions. Use this page for a normal-match comparison and consult Epic’s event details for a boosted session.
No. The published denominator is for any Gizmo in that category. It cannot establish the chance of Sprite Locator, Lucky Locator or another named Gizmo on its own. Dividing the category rate equally among the five items would assume a distribution that our cited rate table does not provide.
Zero is valid and gives zero expected drops and zero chance. The calculator accepts whole counts up to 1,000,000. Blank, negative, fractional and larger inputs produce an explanation instead of a misleading result. Changing an estimate here does not change the saved opening counts on the homepage.
Season finale date: December 5, 2026. Exact event time awaiting official confirmation. Epic announcement ↗